evaluation

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Metrics Mania afflicts the fight against poverty | 

Flickr, chrisjohnbeckett

Newton, statue outside the British Library

A lot of people who say they want to help poor people — the aid and development community — have been getting really nasty with each other lately. Why? In part, it’s because fighting poverty is messy and hard to measure.

At the center of this nastiness is a well-known economist, Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University, who is chronically accused by critics of promoting an anti-poverty strategy –  known as the Millennium Villages Project – which they say is unproven.

The criticism flared again recently, prompting reports like this Forbes piece, which contends Jeff Sachs’ Millennium Villages Showing Zero Results

That’s not quite true. The more thoughtful critics don’t actually say Sachs’ approach doesn’t work. They just say it isn’t clear yet if it’s working.

But boy, does this lack of clarity make some folks angry! To wit:

  • One of Sachs’ leading critics, Michael Clemens at the prestigious Center for Global Development in Washington, DC, recently referred to Sachs on Twitter as “contemptible” for failing to acknowledge his project’s faults in an op-ed he wrote defending the value of foreign aid.
  • Timothy Ogden, editor-in-chief at Philanthropy Action, replied to Clemens (also on Twitter) that Sachs is to economics what Pat Robertson is to Christianity, which I assume was not meant as a compliment.

I have high regard for both Clemens and Ogden and this was, after all, just Twitter. But such hostility directed at Sachs is not that unusual. And it has gotten so intense lately I started wondering if the intensity is overwhelming the content here.

I’m no aid expert, economist or even really that good at math. I’m just a journalist who covers this stuff. And I do love a good argument. But I’m not so sure this qualifies as a good argument anymore. Continue reading

Metrics Mania: Background on the latest Millennium Villages flap | 

A quick chronology of the recent flap over Sachs and the Millennium Villages Project (MVP)

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  1. First came this report in The Lancet that reported in MVP communities – Child mortality rapidly declined over three years
  2. The news media, like The Guardian, reports this – Child mortality down by a third in Jeffrey Sachs Millennium Villages
  3. Some, like Christian Science Monitor, raise questions – Just How Effective is the Millennium Villages Project?
  4. More questions, in media such as UN Dispatch – What have we learned from the Millennium Villages Project?
  5. The Lancet issues a correction (retraction of some data) -  Errors in Millennium Village report
  6. Aid blogger Roving Bandit isn’t satisfied – The Lancet’s editors don’t get evaluation

The gist of all these stories, blogs and reports is that the claim that child mortality was significantly reduced as a result of the improvements made in the MVP communities could not be isolated from broader improvements seen in the region or nation as a whole. Child mortality did decline significantly. But the critics argued MVP can’t claim credit for this — and were mad it did.