pandemic

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The never-ending threat of pandemic flu | 

bird flu headline
Flickr, hugovk

The world’s attention seems to be wandering away from the threat of pandemic flu, though not because of diminished coverage.

NPR Officials prepare for another flu pandemic – just in case

Canadian Press Too soon to declare bird flu under control

Intn’l Business Times Bird flu strain H7N9 in China not yet a pandemic, but …

The stories lately seem like an attempt to counteract what one fellow, writing in the London Review of Books (oddly?), referred to as Pandemic fatigue.

When the latest bird flu surfaced in China with reports of an entirely new strain of avian influenza, many health officials as well as medical reporters sprang into action and sounded the alert.

Because of the nature of this virus, many warned this could mutate into a highly dangerous form that can pass from person-to-person. But of course, the virus may also fail to do this. It may, like many flu viruses, fail to jump species or go ahead and jump but then mutate into a milder form. We don’t know how to predict what flu will do. We also, to quote Donald Rumsfeld, don’t know what we don’t know.

There are hundreds of different flu viruses out there in circulation and they constantly mutate. Seasonal flu already kills hundreds of thousands of people worldwide every year. We could call this our ‘annual flu pandemic’ but that would rob the word of its emotional power.

It’s perhaps worth noting that there is a natural tendency that favors the worrying stories beyond just trying to prompt efforts aimed at disease prevention and preparation. The news media loves scare stories and a human flu pandemic with a more deadly virus is truly scary. In the meantime, we can worry about pig flu as well as bird flu. There might be some budgetary motives, the desire by those in public health to use the scare to make the case for better funding.

These are all, or well most of them, legitimate concerns and efforts aimed at preparing us for the big one. But the question is if these scares fail to explode into a large-scale pandemic, will the public — and policy makers — be better prepared or somehow inoculated against taking the threat seriously in the future?

To publish and perish? Scientists create scary new flu bug | 

Flickr, Y

The U.S. government is opposing full publication by scientists of their methods used to create a mutant form of bird influenza based on the fear it could be used by terrorists to launch a deadly pandemic.

As reasonable as this may sound, many see the government’s position as unworkable and inappropriate.

As Nature magazine and GlobalPost report, some say the researchers should not be allowed to publish their findings because such knowledge would be dangerous in the wrong hands.

On Friday, a compromise position was floated — a three-month hold on publishing while the scientific community figures out how to balance the fundamental need for free and open exchange of ideas with the desire to minimize the potential risk of misuse of scientific information to do harm.

The mutant strain of flu variant H5N1 was created as part of ongoing research to prepare for a major pandemic. As Nature reports:

The mutant strains were not born out of a reckless desire to push the boundaries of high-risk science, but to gain a better understanding of the potential for avian H5N1 to mutate into a form that can spread easily in humans through coughing or sneezing.

That seems prudent enough, but some outside the scientific community are raising the alarm over plans to publish the findings in scientific journals. As The Independent reported:

A deadly strain of bird flu with the potential to infect and kill millions of people has been created in a laboratory by European scientists – who now want to publish full details of how they did it.

The discovery has prompted fears within the US Government that the knowledge will fall into the hands of terrorists wanting to use it as a bio-weapon of mass destruction.

There is reason for caution and precautions have already being taken, beginning with the standard laboratory containment measures. But this is also perhaps evidence why we need to better educate people — apparently including many folks in positions of great power — on statistics and relative risk. Continue reading

Zombies encourage pandemic preparedness | 

If you knew zombies were going to attack, would you finally get your home prepared for an emergency?

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has taken a Hollywood horror approach to public health preparedness. As USA Today reports:

Coming off the tremendous success of its controversial Zombie Preparedness blog posting in May, the CDC health preparedness and response team has now produced an appropriately gruesome online graphic novel that tells the story of a couple struggling to survive a zombie pandemic.

You can read the gory tale here. Spoiler alert: Vaccines save the day!

CDC

The coming of Contagion: A different kind of killer virus movie? | 

Okay, there’s another movie coming out about a killer virus that spreads across the planet — usually wiping out most of the extras and leaving only a few select movie stars.

This one is Contagion, by Steven Soderbergh, due out in a few days.

I have to admit I do love these kind of movies, even if they are usually ridiculous and often rife with all sorts of scientific and medical errors.

Also, it kind of irks me that few get as excited about the real massive killers out there right now like AIDS, TB and malaria. And that something like this kind of thing happens every year — it’s called flu season — and nobody gets that excited or terrified about that either.

But a friend and science-writing colleague, Laurie Garrett, assures me that this time it’s going to be different. Garrett, one of the top public health and pandemic journalists out there, worked with the filmmakers on Contagion. This is what she has to say, from her blog, about being asked to consult for the movie project:

I was worried. Hollywood and television have long portrayed contagious diseases in roughly the same way as they’ve treated vampires, zombies, space aliens and radiation: Terrifying entities incomprehensibly visited upon innocent humans with catastrophic outcomes for the entire species. Depictions of scientists haven’t been much better. If something truly evil happens in a Hollywood creation odds are it’s executed by a serial killer, scientist, or scientist-that-is-a-serial-killer. The only consistently “good” Hollywood scientists are those that work in police forensics labs.

Despite her misgivings, Garrett agreed to work as a consultant to the filmmakers for Contagion. She says it is definitely based on an extraordinarily virulent bug that spreads fast. But the science is solid, she says, and there are some valuable lessons contained in the drama. Garrett says:

I have worked on the movie as one of its two key science consultants, trying to ensure that this time Hollywood would get it right. Judging by the final cut, which I viewed in a Manhattan VIP screening room in early July alongside Hollywood icon Mike Nichols, “Contagion” will be the first blockbuster Hollywood motion picture to accurately portray what is likely to happen if the world is slammed by a pandemic involving a highly virulent organism.

I put a lot of stock in Garrett’s perspective on these sorts of things. I am looking forward to seeing the movie, no matter what. But I can’t help but remain skeptical about whether or not it can be both blockbuster entertaining without exaggerating the threat. I’ll reserve judgment until I see it, of course.

A film reviewer for the LA Times said Contagion “takes science seriously.” That sounds good, until you think about it. Sounds kinda like someone saying they take reality seriously. Anyway, we’ll see.

One thing that the film could accomplish is make people a bit more aware of just how connected we all are on this planet, microbially speaking. As this story in USA Today said, all of the crew came away from Contagion washing their hands more and covering their mouths when they coughed.

That’s not a bad lesson to learn. Next, I hope Hollywood can figure out how to inspire us to be just as freaked about those dying in poor countries from boring diseases, poverty and injustice — even when they can’t spread it here.

The Pandemic is Over | 

No more pandemic

Flickr, by Sir Sabbhat

Relax, no need to pandemic

The World Health Organization has declared the H1N1 “swine flu” flu pandemic (the one you forgot was happening) as officially over.

So what did we learn from this episode? Did we just luck out, as WHO officials say?

Or was it alarmist? Some critics even said the WHO’s refusal to stand down from their pandemic alert level — once it appeared to be milder than expected — was prompted by the desire to appease the drug makers who had responded to the alert by producing massive amounts of drugs and vaccines.

That seems a bit too conspiratorial. But it’s clear the world community needs to come up with a better way to respond to the unpredictable threat of pandemic flu — beginning with a clear definition of what is, and is not, a pandemic.

WHO Still Pondering When to Call Off Pandemic Alert | 

3492450507_b237b36554Flickr photo by Y

Remember the Swine Flu Pandemic of 2009?

The one that didn’t quite happen?

Well, the World Health Organization has been thinking about declaring it’s over. The new virus, H1N1, has been much milder than regular flu — so far showing only about one-third the mortality rate of the routine seasonal bug. But the WHO isn’t quite ready yet to officially declare that the pandemic has passed.

So don’t let’s go and burn the rest of the vaccines just yet.

When Pig Flu Flew | 

Once again, critics are claiming public health experts last year hyped the potential threat of a uniquely piggish version of the influenza virus – the H1N1 virus, or so-called swine flu. This time, however, some of the critics add that the hype was done to benefit the drug industry.

The World Health Organization and other leading health authorities strongly reject the criticism, saying they acted prudently given the risk of a deadly pandemic such as the world experienced in 1918.

The truth is likely somewhere in between. Continue reading